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Ken Bossong, Editor
For Week Ending Friday – May 17, 2024
News Story Excerpts (New Studies & Data on Sustainable Energy and Climate Change)
Note: News story excerpts provided below do not necessarily reflect the views of the SUN DAY Campaign or any of its respective members.
WEEKLY NEWS STORY EXCERPTS
NEW STUDIES, DATA, AND RESOURCES:
Mixed or Cross-Cutting
Maine Is the State Adding the Most Clean Energy Jobs in New England
Renewable Energy World, May 13, 2024
According to a report commissioned by the Maine Governor’s Energy Office, the state has surpassed 15,000 jobs in the clean energy industry, with that sector contributing over $2 billion to the state’s economy in 2022. It found that the clean energy jobs now account for over 2% of the state’s total workforce and that this sector of the economy has grown 14% since 2016, bouncing back from pandemic-era disruptions. Maine’s clean energy workforce grew faster than any other New England state and increased at a rate more than three times faster than the state’s overall economy from 2016 to 2022. That puts the state on track to meet Governor Janet Mills’ goal of 30,000 clean energy jobs in Maine by 2030. The bulk of Maine’s clean energy workforce (58%) is within the energy efficiency sector, with renewable electric power generation constituting the second largest green job creator in the state
Copper Can’t Be Mined Fast Enough to Electrify the U.S.
University of Michigan, May 15, 2024
According to a University of Michigan study, copper cannot be mined quickly enough to keep up with current U.S. policy guidelines to transition the country’s electricity and vehicle infrastructure to renewable energy. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in 2022, calls for 100% of cars manufactured to be electric vehicles by 2035. But an electric vehicle requires three to five times as much copper as an internal combustion engine vehicle—not to mention the copper required for upgrades to the electric grid. To meet the copper needs of electrifying the global vehicle fleet, as many as six new large copper mines must be brought online annually over the next several decades. About 40% of the production from new mines will be required for electric vehicle-related grid upgrades.
WoodMackenzie, May 16, 2024
According to a new analysis by WoodMacKenzie, a Republican victory in 2024 could roll back decarbonization policies and usher in a delayed energy transition for the U.S. Low carbon supply investment would still occur but not at the pace for net zero. Wood Mackenzie’s base case projects about $7.7 trillion in investment for the U.S. energy sector over 2023-50. However, in a delayed transition scenario in the U.S., less policy support for things such as low-carbon energy and infrastructure improvements decreases investment for the U.S. energy sector by $1 trillion compared to the base case. To reach the net zero scenario, $11.8 trillion dollars in capital investment in U.S. energy is required on a cumulative basis from 2023-2050. Investment is 55% lower in the delayed transition scenario. Further, the total stock of EVs by 2050 would be 50% lower than in the base case while wind and solar and energy storage capacity would be about 500-GW by 2050, 25% lower than the base case. Moreover, by 2040, coal generation capacity would be four times higher than the base case.
Latest North Carolina Clean Energy Report Finds Utilities Concerned About Load Growth
Solar Power World, by Kelsey Misbrener, May 16, 2024
The North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center’s Q1 2024 edition of the “50 States of Power Decarbonization” report finds that 48 states, as well as DC and Puerto Rico, took a total of 507 actions related to electric power decarbonization and resource planning during the quarter. Among integrated resource plans recently filed or under review by regulators in Q1 2024, planned capacity additions totaled 84,212-MW for solar, 64,846-MW for wind, 52,689-MW for storage, and 31,330-MW for natural gas, while planned coal retirements totaled 29,807-MW. The report also noes that load growth is top of mind for utilities as the impacts of increased manufacturing, data centers and electrification are evident in their resource planning.
ReNews.Biz, May 17, 2024
According to the International Energy Agency’s “Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024” report, prices of critical minerals used in clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels, fell steeply in 2023 after two years of rises, as supply outpaced demand growth. However, the current well-supplied market may not be a good guide for the future because the deployment of clean energy technologies drives strong demand for critical minerals. Announced projects can meet only 70% of copper and 50% of lithium needs in 2035 in a scenario where countries achieve their national climate goals. The market prospects for other minerals appear more balanced. IEA estimates that the combined market worth of key energy transition minerals will more than double to $770 billion by 2040 in a net zero scenario. Between now and 2040, some $800 billion should be invested in mining to align with a 1.5 degrees C scenario. The sum will be larger if recycling and reuse are not stepped up.
Solar
North American Clean Energy, May 15, 2024
According to a study conducted by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, residential solar PV installations in California since the introduction of the NEM 3.0 – a billing structure of California’s rooftop solar net metering scheme – have been roughly equal to the amount in the prior year. Passage of NEM 3.0 in December 2022 set off a surge of applications seeking to qualify under the previous net metering tariffs (NEM 2.0) before its close in April 2023. The increase in applications led to a subsequent spike in net energy metering installations during the summer of 2023, and after that, the number of installations began a steady decline. As expected, PV systems are smaller under NBT—by about 9% overall and by 17% for systems co-installed with storage. This shift is likely driven in large part by the lower compensation for grid exports provided under NBT, though systems installed in new construction and by less affluent households tend to be smaller as well.
U.S. Surpasses Five Million Solar Installations
Solar Power World, by Billy Ludt, May 16, 2024
According to data released by the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie, the U.S. has officially exceeded five million solar installations, marking a significant achievement in the nation’s clean energy transition. This milestone comes just eight years after the U.S. reached one million installations in 2016 – a milestone that took 40 years to achieve following the first grid-connected solar installation in 1973. Over half of all U.S. solar installations have come online since the start of 2020 and over 25% have come online since the Inflation Reduction Act became law just 20 months ago. The residential sector accounts for 97% of all solar installations in the U.S. SEIA forecasts that solar installations in the U.S. will double to 10 million by 2030 and triple to 15 million by 2034.
UtilityDive.com, by Robert Walton, May 16, 2024
The North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s summer grid assessment concludes that large portions of the U.S. and Canadian electric grids are at risk of electricity supply shortfalls during heat waves and other extreme weather events this summer. NERC identified seven areas facing an “elevated risk” of shortfalls due to rising demand, generator retirements and unplanned outages, drought and the potential for low wind performance. Those areas include portions of Texas, California, New England and the Midwest. However, the addition of about 25-GW of solar capacity to the bulk power system since last year means that all parts of the grid should have adequate supply for normal peak load.
Wind
Wind Farms Offset Their Emissions in Two Years
Renews.Biz, May 16, 2024
According to a peer-reviewed study published in the “Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand,” after less than two years, a wind farm can offset the carbon emissions generated across its entire 30-year lifespan, when compared to thermal power plants. The study reviewed current literature on wind farms, as well as using real construction data to take into account everything from the manufacturing of individual turbine parts, to transporting them into place, to decommissioning the entire wind farm at Harapaki – which comprises 41 machines. While the research used data from the Harapaki onshore wind farm in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand, the authors explain their findings would be replicated across most, if not all, sites internationally.
Bioenergy
EPA Reports 2.06 Billion RINs Generated in April
Biomass Magazine, by Erin Voegele, May 16, 2024
According to data released by the U.S. EPA, more than 2.06 billion renewable identification numbers (RINs) were generated under the Renewable Fuel Standard in April, up from 1.84 billion generated during the same month of last year. Total RIN generation for the first four months of 2024 reached 7.93 billion, up from 7.25 billion generated during the same period of 2023. Nearly 68.85 million D3 cellulosic biofuel RINs were generated in April, including 61.77 million generated for compressed renewable natural gas (RNG) by domestic producers, 3.3 million generated for liquefied RNG by importers, 2.44 million generated for liquefied RNG by domestic producers, 694,722 generated for cellulosic ethanol by domestic producers, and 643,933 generated for compressed RNG by importers.
Storage
Berkeley Lab Report Finds Storage Attachment Rates Jumped 10% Under NEM 3.0
Solar Power World, by Kelsey Misbrener, May 15, 2024
Berkeley Lab has released a short technical brief describing key trends in the California residential solar market since the roll-out of the new net billing tariff (NBT) structure. As expected, more customers are installing storage along with PV, but the pivot has been quite pronounced, with storage attachment rates jumping from roughly 10% under net energy metering (NEM) to 60% under NBT. Perhaps as a result of that sudden increase in demand, inflation-adjusted installed prices for paired PV+storage systems rose by about 17% under NBT, relative to their level under NEM.
Energy Storage News, by Andy Colthorpe, May 16, 2024
The Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and German battery analysis specialist Twaice have jointly evaluated 26 battery fires between 2018 and 2023. They say that the diversity of components plays a critical role in igniting fires but allege most battery energy storage system failures could be prevented by quality assurance and battery monitoring. Further, the overall rate of incidents has sharply decreased, as lessons learned from early failure incidents have been incorporated into new designs and best practices.
Hydrogen
Hydrogen Supply Outlook 2024 – A Reality Check
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, May 14, 2024
BNEF expects clean H2 supply to skyrocket 30-fold from 0.5 million metric tons (Mt) of capacity online today to 16.4 Mt per year by 2030, driven by supportive policy and a maturing project pipeline. Still, this is not sufficient to meet most government targets. Less than a third of the 1,600 projects that have been announced to date materialize in BNEF’s bottom-up analysis, and often later than planned. By 2030, more than 50% of the world’s clean hydrogen capacity will come from electrolysis and more than 80% of all supplies will originate in the U.S., China and Europe. The U.S. is expected to become the single largest producer of clean H2 by 2030, accounting for almost 37% of global supply.
North American Clean Energy, May 15, 2024
According to a new report from Bluefield Research, green hydrogen has emerged as a key focal point of the global energy transition and is driving opportunities for companies across the water industry. To date, 30 countries have developed hydrogen strategies and roadmaps with almost 2,000 projects announced on every continent. However, the scale and success of the hydrogen market also depends on the sometimes-overlooked availability of water supplies because highly treated ultrapure water is the critical input for producing green hydrogen. Through 2030, $26.3 billion will be spent on water management for hydrogen applications.
Electric Vehicles
States Consider Pulling Back or Prohibiting Zero-Emission Vehicle Targets in Q1 2024
North American Clean Energy, May 13, 2024
According to the NC Clean Energy Technology Center’s Q1 2024 edition of “The 50 States of Electric Vehicles,” 46 states, plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico took actions related to electric vehicles and charging infrastructure last quarter, with the greatest number of actions relating to rebate and grant programs; registration, mileage, or charging fees for electric vehicles; state procurement of electric vehicles; charging infrastructure planning activities; and rules governing publicly available charging stations. States also continued to take actions planning for National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program funding distribution. A total of 595 electric vehicle actions were taken during Q1 2024, with the most active states being Massachusetts, New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, Minnesota, Hawaii and Maryland. So far in 2024, 16 states have enacted legislation related to transportation electrification, as of early May 2024.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 14, 2024
According to an update from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, sales of battery electric vehicles (full EVs) dropped to 7.0% of overall light vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2024 from 8.1% in the previous quarter. Nationally, sales of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and EVs combined dropped to 18.0% of the market, versus 18.8% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, there was a decline in the whole light-duty vehicle market, led by a sag in luxury-vehicle sales, at a time when eight out of 10 EV sales are luxury models. However, in a trend that parallels a California EV trend for the quarter, EV sales by actual volume were actually up 7% in the first quarter of 2024 versus the same quarter in 2023.
What Would Happen if We Electrified Every Bus in America?
StreetsBlog.org, by Kea Wilson, May 14, 2024
A recent study from Carnegie Mellon University found that electrifying America’s bus fleet could slash between one- and two-thirds of the fleet’s total greenhouse gases over the next 14 years, depending on how quickly it is done. The researchers found that if were possible to “wave a magic wand” and swap out every diesel bus on the road – a prospect that they estimate would cost $39.5 billion – America could zap an astonishing 40 million metric tons of greenhouse gases from the skies by 2035. Even simply replacing diesel buses with electric ones as they naturally age out of service, though, would still cut 35 million metric tons of CO2 by the 2035 deadline – and it could be done at the cost of just $8.5 billion to start, plus $2 billion to $3 billion a year every year until all the gas-guzzlers were gone.
Over 4 Million Plugin Vehicles Sold Globally in 2024
Rho Motion, May 17, 2024
According to EV research-house Rho Motion, global EV sales reached 1.1 million units in April 2024, bringing year-to-date sales to 4.3 million, 22% greater than the same period in 2023. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) represent 64% of units sold so far in 2024, with the remaining 36% Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV). The North American market has increased by 7% YTD, with Canada leading EV sales growth in the region with 27% YTD.
Energy Efficiency
Programs to Promote Zero-Energy and Zero-Carbon New Homes and Buildings Are Growing
American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, by Steven Nadel, May 16, 2024
A new ACEEE white paper identifies 22 programs advancing zero-energy, zero-carbon, or zero-energy-ready buildings, including 14 residential and 8 commercial programs. The 22 programs have a combined annual budget of approximately $110 million for 2024. This is about 70% more than the total budget for similar programs examined in a 2020 ACEEE study. Across these programs, more than 5,000 new single-family homes, nearly 25,000 new apartments, and 222 new commercial buildings totaling 9.5 million sq. ft. have been completed. These figures do not include most of the 21,000 homes completed under the DOE Zero-Energy-Ready Homes program, a growing national program.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Sierra Club, May 13, 2024
According to the 15th annual “Banking on Climate Chaos” report issued by a coalition of groups, the world’s 60 largest private banks have spent more than $6.9 trillion on fossil fuel financing since the Paris Climate Accords were signed in 2016. That total includes $705 billion in fossil fuel financing last year, with U.S. based banks accounting for 30% of that financing. The six largest U.S. banks – JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – account for more than $1.8 trillion in fossil fuel financing from 2016 to 2023, or more than a quarter of the global total. After being overtaken by Royal Bank of Canada in 2022, JPMorgan Chase was again the top fossil fuel financier in 2023. JPMorgan spent $40.8 billion on fossil fuel financing last year.
IDTechEx Forecasts Durable, Engineered CO2 Removals Will Reach 630 Mt by 2044
North American Clean Energy, May 13, 2024
A new IDTechEx report concludes that carbon dioxide removal will be needed to reach any international net zero emission targets and avoid global warming beyond 1.5-2°C. Negative emissions technologies, especially those that go beyond nature-based approaches to provide long-lasting scalable CO2 removals, have therefore been receiving increased support through government policy and voluntary carbon credit purchases from corporations with ambitious climate goals. By 2044, the world’s capacity for such durable, engineered CO2 removals will exceed 630 megatonnes per annum.
April 2024 Was Earth’s Warmest on Record
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, May 14, 2024
April 2024 ranks as the warmest April on record and is also the 11th-consecutive month of record-breaking global warmth. The average global temperature in April was 2.38 degrees F (1.32 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 56.7 degrees F (13.7 degrees C). Moreover, the year to date (January through April 2024) global temperature ranked as the warmest such period on record at 2.41 degrees F (1.34 degrees C) above the 20th-century average. There is now a 61% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and a 100% chance that it will rank in the top five of warmest years recorded.
Industrial Emissions Aren’t Falling Fast Enough to Meet U.S. Climate Goals
Canary Media, by Maria Gallucci, May 16, 2024
According to the Rhodium Group’s latest decarbonization outlook for industrial activities – including chemical refining, food processing, oil and gas production, steelmaking, and cement manufacturing – heavy industry could soon be the nation’s number one source of CO2 emissions. Currently, the country’s number one source of planet-warming pollution is the U.S. transportation sector. Heavy industry overtook electricity as the second-highest emitter in 2023. But whereas battery-powered vehicles and renewable energy projects are proliferating nationwide, and starting to edge out fossil fuels, the nation’s factories are making only plodding progress toward slashing greenhouse gas emissions. It estimated that, under current policies, industrial emissions could decline by just 5 to 10 percent by 2040, with a reduction of 81 million to 132 million metric tons of net greenhouse gas emissions.
The Energy Age 